What settles soon is a calendar every venue has. Whether it settles cleanly is the part nobody else publishes.
Scroll or drag the plot for time · drag the value axis to rescale · double-click it to reset
| Market | Closes | In | Strikes | Odds | Volume | Resolution risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
implied-v1 · flags-v2 · cat-v1 · A contract settling at $1 makes its price read as a probability, but it is a RISK-NEUTRAL one: it carries risk premium and hedging demand and it is not a forecast. Treating it as the market's true belief is the mistake this chart exists to make hard. Contracts closing within 14 days above $10,000 of volume, anchored on the corpus pull date rather than on today — the window slides as the corpus is re-pulled, and every figure below moves with it. Strike ladders are folded to one row per family: 18 qualifying contracts became 7, because sixteen rows of the same question at sixteen strikes push every other event off the page.
What settles soon is a calendar every venue has. Whether it settles cleanly is the part nobody else publishes.
Every value plotted for a past date could have been computed on that date. Normalised series expand their window rather than scaling against the full history, so nothing here is drawn using information that did not exist yet — which is also why the early years of a normalised series are dropped rather than shown against a range of one.