Cryptolean

Easing Odds against Bitcoin Risk

201 daily observations · level +0.56 · daily change -0.08

As of 5 Aug 2026Points 201Daily close · not real-time

Scroll or drag to move the time axis · hold shift for the value axis · drag either slider

Description

Level correlation +0.56, daily-change correlation -0.08, over 201 days of overlap on KXFEDDECISION-26SEP. The level figure is the seductive one and the weaker of the two: both series trend, and two trending series correlate whether or not anything connects them. The daily-change figure is the one that would carry information, and it is -0.08 — indistinguishable from nothing. Ten months is far too short a sample to claim a relationship in either direction, and this number moves when the front Fed contract rolls.

How to read it

201 daily observations · level +0.56 · daily change -0.08

Every value plotted for a past date could have been computed on that date. Normalised series expand their window rather than scaling against the full history, so nothing here is drawn using information that did not exist yet — which is also why the early years of a normalised series are dropped rather than shown against a range of one.

Metric version
None — built from price alone
Export format
web-v4
Computed
5 Aug 2026
Shape
timeseries
Category
Prediction markets
Data sources
Daily close. Free public endpoints, cached before processing; nothing here is real-time.