Every row carries its Zone 11 resolution-risk flag — what the odds say, and how cleanly the contract behind them settles.
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| Market | Venue | Odds | Volume | Closes | Resolution risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
implied-v1 · flags-v2 · cat-v1 · A contract settling at $1 makes its price read as a probability, but it is a RISK-NEUTRAL one: it carries risk premium and hedging demand and it is not a forecast. Treating it as the market's true belief is the mistake this chart exists to make hard. Ranked by volume within theme and capped at 5 a theme, over contracts above $50,000 of volume. The resolution-risk column is the Zone 11 join: 70% of these score exactly 0.50 because Polymarket templates its crypto rules, so on this board the column is a weak discriminator and says so rather than implying a spread it does not have.
Every row carries its Zone 11 resolution-risk flag — what the odds say, and how cleanly the contract behind them settles.
Every value plotted for a past date could have been computed on that date. Normalised series expand their window rather than scaling against the full history, so nothing here is drawn using information that did not exist yet — which is also why the early years of a normalised series are dropped rather than shown against a range of one.