Easing priced at 2% · BTC risk 0.215 · KXFEDDECISION-26SEP
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implied-v1 · Kalshi contracts settle at $1, so price reads as a risk-neutral probability — it carries risk premium and is not a forecast. 107 of 308 days failed a liquidity check: an outcome unquoted, a spread wider than 0.10, or a raw sum further than 0.10 from 1. Isolated failures are carried across from the surrounding quotes; sustained stretches are left as holes. About ten months of overlap — far too little to claim a relationship.
Easing priced at 2% · BTC risk 0.215 · KXFEDDECISION-26SEP
Every value plotted for a past date could have been computed on that date. Normalised series expand their window rather than scaling against the full history, so nothing here is drawn using information that did not exist yet — which is also why the early years of a normalised series are dropped rather than shown against a range of one.