Polymarket · closes 2027-01-01
Odds1.8%Volume$5,357,453Resolution risk0.500// Evidence workspace
Decision Intelligence
Price, resolution context and calibration — views, not signals.
01
What is priced?
Start with market-implied odds and volume, not a house forecast.
02
What can resolve badly?
Read wording and settlement context before treating a probability as clean.
03
Did odds calibrate?
Compare historical implied buckets with what actually settled.
Interactive evidence
Open source surface →Market explorer
Open crypto markets1,164Polymarket vs Kalshi1,133 vs 31Volume at stake$85,650,196Scoring exactly 0.5069.9%
16 of 16 marketsimplied-v1 · ordering preserved from payload
Polymarket · closes 2027-01-01
Odds54.5%Volume$4,948,460Resolution risk0.500Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket · closes 2027-01-01
Odds3.3%Volume$4,919,885Resolution risk0.500Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket · closes 2027-01-01
Odds24.5%Volume$3,988,038Resolution risk0.500Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket · closes 2027-01-01
Odds3.9%Volume$2,725,633Resolution risk0.500Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket · closes 2027-01-01
Odds5.7%Volume$4,648,022Resolution risk0.625Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Polymarket · closes 2026-12-31
Odds2.5%Volume$1,019,331Resolution risk0.688Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
Polymarket · closes 2026-12-31
Odds3.7%Volume$935,128Resolution risk0.625Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?
Polymarket · closes 2026-12-31
Odds0.1%Volume$650,947Resolution risk0.425Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Polymarket · closes 2027-01-01
Odds16.5%Volume$551,304Resolution risk0.688Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket · closes 2027-01-01
Odds10.5%Volume$241,817Resolution risk0.625Hyperliquid listed on Binance in 2026?
Polymarket · closes 2027-01-01
Odds13.5%Volume$175,561Resolution risk0.688Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026
Polymarket · closes unspecified
Odds12.0%Volume$147,009Resolution risk0.688Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket · closes 2027-01-01
Odds30.0%Volume$103,539Resolution risk0.713Over $1B raised on Coinbase in 2026?
Polymarket · closes 2026-12-31
Odds6.5%Volume$83,933Resolution risk0.688Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027?
Polymarket · closes 2027-01-01
Odds6.5%Volume$291,581Resolution risk0.625Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81
Filtering changes only which shipped rows are visible. Odds, volume, risk and ordering are never recomputed in the browser.
// Calibration evidence
Implied vs realised
Below the diagonal the market was overconfident. The top-end gap is the headline and it rests on a handful of contracts — worth publishing, not worth trusting.
This is evidence from settled contracts, not a correction applied to current odds.
Market-days4,747Settled contracts36Mean error-4.3 ppRealised72.4 pp
Inspect calibration chart