Cryptolean
// Methodology · val

Valuation multiples and the asymmetric regression fan.

Current definition val-v1. Charts stamped with it were computed by src/metrics/valuation.py, and every value plotted for a past date could have been computed on that date.

Definition and failure modes

Two kinds of thing live here, and the difference matters more than the code.

Folklore multiples — the Golden Ratio Multiplier and the two-year multiplier — are a moving average times a constant somebody picked because it fitted the chart. There is no mechanism. They are included because they are widely watched and a library that omits them is answering a question nobody asked, and every one of them ships with its own empirical expanding percentile beside the constant, so a reader can see whether the folklore level and this asset's actual record agree. Often they do not.

The asymmetric fan is the honest counterpart: expanding quantiles of the log regression residual, so the band above the fit and the band below are allowed to be different widths. Crypto's residual distribution is not symmetric and a ±k-sigma band asserts that it is.

Everything is expanding. A multiple's percentile in 2015 is computed from 2015's record and no later day, exactly as risk.py does it.

Version history

Newest first. Each entry says what changed and whether values that had already been published moved with it, followed by the sentence from the module that decided the verdict.

  1. val-v12026-08-05InitialCurrent

    golden ratio multiplier, two-year multiplier, expanding multiple percentiles, asymmetric quantile fan.

    The first version of this metric. There is no earlier definition to restate.

Charts drawn with it

44 charts name this metric in their readout line. 33 name it first, so a count taken from the leading stamp alone reports 33 rather than 44. A chart built on several definitions carries all of them, and being second in that list is not the same as being unused.

valuation

Bitcoin — Asymmetric Quantile FanCardano — Golden Ratio MultiplierAvalanche — Golden Ratio MultiplierBitcoin Cash — Golden Ratio MultiplierPolkadot — Golden Ratio MultiplierEthereum — Golden Ratio MultiplierChainlink — Golden Ratio MultiplierLitecoin — Golden Ratio MultiplierPolygon — Golden Ratio MultiplierSolana — Golden Ratio MultiplierXRP — Golden Ratio MultiplierBitcoin — Golden Ratio MultiplierCardano — Distance from Log RegressionAvalanche — Distance from Log RegressionBitcoin Cash — Distance from Log RegressionPolkadot — Distance from Log RegressionEthereum — Distance from Log RegressionChainlink — Distance from Log RegressionLitecoin — Distance from Log RegressionPolygon — Distance from Log RegressionSolana — Distance from Log RegressionXRP — Distance from Log RegressionBitcoin — Distance from Log RegressionCardano — Asymmetric Quantile FanAvalanche — Asymmetric Quantile FanBitcoin Cash — Asymmetric Quantile FanPolkadot — Asymmetric Quantile FanEthereum — Asymmetric Quantile FanChainlink — Asymmetric Quantile FanLitecoin — Asymmetric Quantile FanPolygon — Asymmetric Quantile FanSolana — Asymmetric Quantile FanXRP — Asymmetric Quantile FanCardano — Two-Year Moving Average MultiplierAvalanche — Two-Year Moving Average MultiplierBitcoin Cash — Two-Year Moving Average MultiplierPolkadot — Two-Year Moving Average MultiplierEthereum — Two-Year Moving Average MultiplierChainlink — Two-Year Moving Average MultiplierLitecoin — Two-Year Moving Average MultiplierPolygon — Two-Year Moving Average MultiplierSolana — Two-Year Moving Average MultiplierXRP — Two-Year Moving Average MultiplierBitcoin — Two-Year Moving Average Multiplier
Current version
val-v1
Versions on record
1
First dated
2026-08-05
Restatement policy
Never moved
Never restated. Every bump on record added output without redefining what was already there.
Charts
44
Source
src/metrics/valuation.py
Public functions
base_multiple, compute, expanding_percentile, fan, golden_ratio_bands, two_year_bands
Machine-readable
catalog.json · llms.txt