-64% against the fit · 2th percentile of its own expanding record
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logreg-v2 · val-v1 · The gap is log(price) minus log(fair value) against the expanding fit; the percentile is where that gap ranks against every EARLIER day, and only against earlier days. Both are computable on the day they refer to, which the conventional full-sample version of this chart is not.
-64% against the fit · 2th percentile of its own expanding record
Every value plotted for a past date could have been computed on that date. Normalised series expand their window rather than scaling against the full history, so nothing here is drawn using information that did not exist yet — which is also why the early years of a normalised series are dropped rather than shown against a range of one.