Current definition implied-v1. Charts stamped with it were computed by src/metrics/implied.py, and every value plotted for a past date could have been computed on that date.
A Kalshi contract settles at $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not, so its price reads as a probability. Three caveats that belong on every chart built from it:
1. It is a risk-neutral probability, not a forecast. It includes whatever risk
premium and hedging demand sit in the price.
2. Mutually exclusive outcomes rarely sum to exactly 1. Fees and spread leave a
gap. We report the raw sum so the gap is visible, and normalise only for display.
3. Mid, not last. Last trade can be stale on a thin market; the midpoint of the
bid/ask is the better read where both sides exist.
Newest first. Each entry says what changed and whether values that had already been published moved with it, followed by the sentence from the module that decided the verdict.
outcome panels from daily candles, raw sum reported.
The first version of this metric. There is no earlier definition to restate.
2 charts name this metric in their readout line.