The fit widens and re-centres as history accumulates. Bands drawn in 2015 do not know 2021's spread.
Scroll or drag the plot for time · drag the value axis to rescale · double-click it to reset
logreg-v2 · EXPANDING fit — every point uses only data that existed at that date. A full-sample fit would draw 2021's fair value using 2026 data. The dashed lines past today extend TODAY's fit and TODAY's residual spread forward; they are an extrapolation of the current fit and not a forecast, and they will move as the fit does.
The fair value and its bands run past the last observation. That extension applies today’s fit and today’s residual spread going forward — it is an extrapolation of the current fit, not a forecast, and it will move as the fit does.
The fit widens and re-centres as history accumulates. Bands drawn in 2015 do not know 2021's spread.
Every value plotted for a past date could have been computed on that date. Normalised series expand their window rather than scaling against the full history, so nothing here is drawn using information that did not exist yet — which is also why the early years of a normalised series are dropped rather than shown against a range of one.
This asset has a short record. The chart still builds, because hiding it would leave you wondering why your coin is missing — but a long-horizon fit on a short history is noise wearing a trend’s clothes.