1y positive on 70% of start dates · 2y positive on 77% of start dates · 4y positive on 79% of start dates
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cycle-v3 · Plotted on the date the period ENDED, so a point in 2026 is the return of someone who bought four years earlier. Overlapping windows are not independent observations: fifteen years contains about three non-overlapping four-year holds, and the percentages below should be read with that in mind rather than as a probability.
1y positive on 70% of start dates · 2y positive on 77% of start dates · 4y positive on 79% of start dates
Every value plotted for a past date could have been computed on that date. Normalised series expand their window rather than scaling against the full history, so nothing here is drawn using information that did not exist yet — which is also why the early years of a normalised series are dropped rather than shown against a range of one.