1y positive on 35% of start dates · 2y positive on 41% of start dates · 4y positive on 57% of start dates
Scroll or drag to move the time axis · hold shift for the value axis · drag either slider
cycle-v3 · Plotted on the date the period ENDED, so a point in 2026 is the return of someone who bought four years earlier. Overlapping windows are not independent observations: fifteen years contains about three non-overlapping four-year holds, and the percentages below should be read with that in mind rather than as a probability.
1y positive on 35% of start dates · 2y positive on 41% of start dates · 4y positive on 57% of start dates
Every value plotted for a past date could have been computed on that date. Normalised series expand their window rather than scaling against the full history, so nothing here is drawn using information that did not exist yet — which is also why the early years of a normalised series are dropped rather than shown against a range of one.
This asset has a short record. The chart still builds, because hiding it would leave you wondering why your coin is missing — but a long-horizon fit on a short history is noise wearing a trend’s clothes.